In an attempt to regain credibility on the market after a bruising presidential election campaign, an independent commission is being set up to look at polling errors.
Following wide variations in opinion poll results in the lead up to both rounds of the recent presidential elections, the Organization of Market and Opinion Poll Research (OFBOR) in Poland is to examine methodology of all 22 companies active on the market and suggest standardized guidelines for optimal research practice.
On election night as polls closed for the first round of elections on June 20, one exit poll, commissioned by the private TVN TV channel, found Komorowski on 45.7 and Jaroslaw Kaczynski on 33.2 percent. The official result was 41.5 percent for Komorowski and 36.5 percent for Kaczynski.
In the last polls published before the first round, MillwardBrown SMG/KRC predicted Komorowski would receive 44 percent and Kaczynsski as low as 29 percent.
OFBOR is to established an independent commission for the evaluation of research methodology ahead of local elections this autumn. It will be chaired by Professor Henryk Domanski, director of the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology at the Polish Academy of Sciences.
The commission will put forward various hypothesis as to what went wrong with the research – particularly why opinion pollsters continue to underestimate support for the opposition Law and Justice party candidates.
Even more error-ridden polls emerged before the presidential elections on 2005, predicting a win in many cases for Donald Tysk, even though Lech Kaczynski emerged as a winner. (pg)
Source: press.pl
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