Andrzej Lepper, head of the minor coalition Self Defense party has been dismissed from his post of deputy Prime Minister and Agriculture Minister, after the Central Anti-Corruption Bureau made some arrests in connection with a large scale corruption case.
Joanna Najfeld reports
Lepper's dismissal came Monday night suddenly and unexpectedly and former deputy Prime Minister denied all connections with the corruption allegations. Although no further details of the Central Anti-Corruption Bureau investigation are available, Prime Minister Kaczynski told a press conference last night that the charges look bad for Lepper.
'In the light of the materials that I can access, it is obvious that he is under suspicion. And this is enough to ask him to leave his ministerial post, at least until the charges are cleared.'
In response, Andrzej Lepper announced that his Self Defense party will leave the ruling coalition:
'Self Defense will no longer be part of this government.'
But some party members later began to express doubts about this move. Self Defense MP Krzysztof Filipek:
'This government has done a lot of good. Perhaps early elections won't be necessary.'
Among those who spoke up against Lepper was Self Defense MEP Ryszard Czarnecki, who said that he would prefer the party to remain in the coalition. A motion to exclude him from the party has been filed as a punishment.
After a special session of the ruling Law and Justice party leaders, deputy head of the party told journalists that all scenarios are now possible, including early elections, but that a minority government is not out of the question either.
Meanwhile, far left opposition Democratic Left Alliance party called for the dissolution of the parliament.
Major opposition Civic Platform party is expecting early elections in September. Head of their parliamentary club, Bogdan Zdrojewski, thinks the dismissal is part of a conscious political strategy on the part of Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczynski, and that it is significant that corruption charges against Self Defense are being brought up now.
'We've known for a long time now that Self Defense is not a bunch of saints. The fact that it is coming out now looks like political pragmatics.'
One possible scenario now is to try really hard to maintain the majority government after all, says political science PhD Marek Migalski of the Silesian University.
'The most probable solution postulated by the Prime Ministers is finding a majority, which can be done in two ways - by persuading the Self Defense MPs to stay on the side of the government or by getting the Peasant's Party to join the ruling coalition. Both can work. Self Defense MPs have come with Lepper for their own personal political and financial gain so they can just as well betray Lepper today and go to the government camp. On the other hand, the Peasant's party might want to replace Self Defense in the ruling coalition in order to improve their political position in the rural areas. The Peasant's party might also be afraid that if it does not enter the ruling coalition, a new voting system may be created by Law and Justice together with the major opposition Civic Platform, which could eliminate smaller parties.'
The other scenario is pre-term, but not too sudden elections, says Migalski.
'If Prime Minister Kaczynski fails to find a majority, he could maintain a minority government for some time. This would be beneficial to him. He would push almost everyone else to the opposition. This means that Donald Tusk would have to start speaking in the language of Andrzej Lepper and the far left, which would be very bad for Tusk's Civic Platform. In the next elections the ruling Law and Justice would be pictured as a conqueror of the 'układ', of corruption, of nepotism and pathologies of the public life. That could be successful for Kaczynski's party in the early elections, which we should expect in 6 or 7 months.'
Michał Karnowski, opinion journalist of the Dziennik daily and NEWSWEEK Poland is quite convinced, there will be new elections by the end of the year.
'The situation is very serious. I think it will bring new elections by the end of this year. This corruption case seems to be very serious. Andrzej Lepper is probably involved in it. On the other hand, last months were very difficult for the main government Law and Justice party, there were a lot of problems and conflicts. I think this situation is a great opportunity for the Prime Minister to go forward, find new ideas, maybe a new coalition after the elections. I think there will be elections. I don't believe in minority government in Poland because the opposition is very aggressive. I don't believe in such a solution.'
Speaking on Polish Radio One, Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczynski said that decisions regarding the future of the government and the possibility of early elections will most probably be taken in September.