The coalition government of Donald Tusk has announced its return to plans of introducing the euro in Poland.
Slawek Szefs reports
When the idea to adopt the common European currency in 2011 had been first brought to public attention several months ago, the news came as unexpected both for the political opposition as well as a certain group of cabinet ministers, mainly because of the relatively short period for its implementation. Now, the Tusk government has rescheduled its action plan for January 1st 2012 and revised its strategy to envisage the current alignment of power for moves necessary to carry out the difficult project. President Lech Kaczynski compared its importance to Poland's NATO entry, hence a strong suggestion to hold a national referendum on the matter.
PM Donald Tusk said he will be persuading all political parties to accept his government's timetable, but should this not bring results there is a plan B. Three plans to be exact: 'We can either wait for a change in parliamentary composition to secure a constitutional majority of supporters of Eurozone accession. The second alternative is a referendum, as demanded by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS), though I consider it an unnecessary duplication. The third option is to complete this road map and wait with the Constitution change for this road to conclude,' he said.
Adam Bielan, a high ranking MEP from Law and Justice, argues a referendum should be mandatory. Also, Poland should not switch to the euro currency until its economy is fully ready for the move and in his party's opinion the time has not yet come: 'This is an exceptionally crucial decision for the whole nation. That's why we propose a referendum. I know that during his meeting with our chairman Kaczynski (Jaroslaw) premier Tusk did not exclude such a possibility, so it could well be that we will have this referendum next year.'
Deputy PM Grzegorz Schetyna, on his part, stressed that the order of steps in Poland's road to euro adoption must be defined: 'I'm in favor of changing the Constitution. Only then, if there be a required political necessity, should we call a referendum.'
Professor Stanislaw Gomulka of the London School of Economics and former deputy finance minister in the Tusk government considers the plan good and very ambitious, but sees some possible serious obstacles ahead: 'The first one, perhaps the most important in the short run, is the political obstacle. Namely, it is required by both the European Central Bank and the finance minister of Poland that there is an agreement between the major political parties with respect to the change in the Constitution in Poland, which is required for the country to adopt the euro as a national currency. This is seen by the authorities in Europe, as well as monetary authorities in Poland as a precondition.'
This, according to experts, should be done within the next few months in order to meet the target date.
But even if positive thinking is applied, there still remain the Maastricht criteria which the country has to meet by 2010 for the European Central Bank and the European Union authorities to allow Poland to enter the Eurozone, explains professor Gomulka: 'The test of this will be evaluated in the middle of 2011 and if everything goes well, which it may or may not, because the economic slowdown which Poland is likely to experience will complicate matters as far as the fiscal criterium is concerened. It's not impossible, however, for Poland to meet the criterium provided there is sufficient determination on the part of the coalition and with some support of the president. So there is still a number of obsatcles to be overcome. But the project can be considered ambitious and from the economic point of view to be most welcome.'
The European Commission has reacted to the Polish announcement in a very similar tone. It refrained, however, to comment on the date of introducing the euro currency planned by the government in Warsaw.