The European Commission’s forecast for minus 1.4 growth in 2009 is just plain wrong, Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski said at a press conference, Monday.

The government is sticking to its forecast of positive economic growth in Poland in 2009, the minister said. He dismissed the EC report issued today, which predicts Poland facing a 1.4 drop in GDP this year.

“It is a forecast, not a fact about the future,” said Minister Rostowski. “Considering how much it is different from the forecast they issued on 18 January, everyone can see how changeable the situation is,” Rostowski noticed.

In January the EC reported two per cent growth for Poland’s economy in 2009.

Rostowski remains optimistic because of strong public investments planned for this year and gave an example of a governmental road building project, which will see a 100 per cent growth of expenditure this year.

Finance Minister Rostowski also does not agree with the EC’s public finance deficit forecast, which he claimed will not exceed 4.6 per cent of GDP. “And that is absolutely the worst case scenario we are forecasting,” he said. The EC claims it will rise to 6.6 per cent in 2009 and 7.3 next year, exceeding EU rules on deficits for countries, like Poland, wishing to enter the Euro Zone.

One of Poland’s top economists, Ryszard Petru – soon to be chief analyst at BRE Bank -  thinks the EC forecast does not seem realistic. 'I think this forecast is based on outdated data from the beginning of this year. So hopefully this pessimistic forecast is just wrong,' he said.

The European Commission’s predictions, however, come just a week after the IMF also predicted a mild recession in Poland, though they saw a shrinkage of just 0.7 of GDP for 2009. (jg/pg)

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EC forecasts recession for Poland in 2009, thenews.pl, May 4