• Russian foreign minister Lavrov expected in Warsaw Thursday
  • Audio3.41 MB
  • 09.09.2008

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is expected in Warsaw on Thursday. Given the tense situation on the Warsaw-Moscow line, many observers agree the very fact that the visit will be taking place is already an initial success. 

Slawek Szefs reports             

This could also be seen as a sign of both sides maturing to the point of realizing that they cannot afford to give each other any cold shoulder treatment. Dialogue is simply a must.  

Regardless of the current temperature in bilateral relations, these have to be viewed in an international context, says Andrzej Bobinski from the Center For International Relations in Warsaw. 

'At this point anything that has to do with Russian relations with any given EU member state has to be seen in an Russia-EU context, for bvious reasons, because of the fact that the whole of Europe and most of the world is looking at Georgia and waiting for Russian forces to retreat back to the lines of pre-August 6th. Also because everybody is waiting to see what will happen in Geneva on the 15th of October. So, basically, it's very difficult to talk about any type of bilateral relations at this stage.' 

Dmitry Babich from Russia Profile magazine in Moscow agrees that by calming relations with Poland, Russia could clear the ground for many important issues in coopereation with the EU. 

'Poland is one of Russia's most vocal critics in the EU. When there is an argument between Russia and the EU you can always predict which side Poland is going to be on and that Poland will suggest the most severe variant of dealing with Russia. So Russia, obviously wants to change this and hopes to change it. This can be done only via dialogue. I'm sure minister Lavrov will try to find some kind of modus vivendi with Poland.' 

Andrzej Bobinski from the Center For International Relations expects that despite the abundance of crucial problems in bilateral affairs, the Russian foreign minister's visit to Poland will be an opportunity to address EU partners with an indirect message. 

'Obviously in Polish-Russian and EU-Russian relations we're in a very difficult place due to the Georgia crisis. I think that at this point minister Lavrov's visit is mainly supposed to smoothen out relations between Poland and Russia, Russia and the EU. It's mainly meant to show that Russia is ready to go back to business as usual. The question is, if the EU is ready to accept that Russia is ready to go back to business as usual.' 

In the opinion of Dmitry Babich, the Russia Profile commentator, minister Lavrov will not avoid difficult bilateral topics and shall also be firm in presenting Russian evaluation of the situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. 

'He will probably try to talk frankly about the disagreements between Russia and Poland. He will probably say that any kind of direct ideological or, heaven forbid, military support for Saakashvili will be viewed very nagatively by Russia. This is the message that the Kremlin is trying to send to all the countries of the world. Several people connected with the Kremlin spoke very harshly about the reactions of East European countries, especially of Poland, or of their support for Saakashvili.' 

Russian foreign ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko went on record saying Moscow is counting on 'a constructive dialogue' with Warsaw on all contentious issues, for instance, the location of US missile defense shield elements in Poland. The Polish side holds similar expectations, to mention only the course of latest developments in the Caususes. But the most important thing is kept in focus - appreciation of the imperative need for dialogue. That is why both the Polish president and prime minister have declared their will to meet the Russian foreign minister in Warsaw.