Following the announcement by the Ukrainian president of the dissolution of the country's parliament and the pre-term elections many experts in Poland voiced concern that Poland's eastern neighbor may no longer be in temporary crisis but in a deep political chaos. This, in turn, may have negative effects on its euro-atlantic aspirations that Poland has been strongly supporting.
Danuta Isler reports
It was last night that in a televised address to the nation Ukrainian president Victor Yuschenko announced his decision to dissolve Parliament and hold snap elections following weeks of political fighting with one-time Orange Coalition ally, prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko. In his speech he accused her of acting at the expense of the country's interests: ‘The democratic coalition was ruined by one and only thing - ambitions of one persons and her aspirations to hold power’.
The pre-term elections will take place on December 7 and it will be the third ones since Victor Yushchenko came to power after the 2004 Orange Revolution - the event which brought with it the hope for a break from the former Soviet republic's past. After the decision has been announced the opposition Party of Regions issued a statement criticizing the move.
Speaking on "Szuster Live' on Ukrainian Television Volodymir Jaworiwskyj of the Julia Tymoshenko Bloc spoke of vast consequences for Ukraine on the international arena: ‘Today the chit-chat about NATO's membership action plan or European integration seems ridiculous. The doors are closed. Nobody will want to deal with a country that during the times of such economic crisis is being dragged into pre-term elections on top of that’.
This view is echoed in Poland which has been one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine's EU and NATO aspirations. President Lech Kaczynski has appealed many times for granting a NATO Membership Action Plan to Ukraine arguing it would bring stability in the region. However, NATO summit in Bucharest earlier this year left the doors to the Alliance closed in the nearest future.
Andrzej Szeptycki from the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw says there is no doubt that the pre-term elections will have a negative impact on Euro-atlantic aspirations of Ukraine: ‘Certainly this difficult situation makes the question of membership Action Plan still more difficult, Secondly, this crisis takes place two months after the war in Georgia. It is not impossible that this crisis which started already a month ago was somehow stimulated by the Russian Federation. If Ukraine because of this crisis does not get MAP in December it would be a point for Russia’.
What may also be at stake is the future of the so-called Eastern Partnership initiative which Poland has been energetically promoting. The project aims at deepening the co-operation between the EU and its eastern neighbors has already gained the support of, many members of the bloc. The strengthening of the eastern dimension of the bloc's 'neighbourhood policy' is also to be the priority of Poland's presidency in the European Union in the second half of 2011.
‘Negotiations with the EU about the new enhanced agreement, about deep free trade area will probably need two or three more years. All main political forces in Ukraine generally agree about the European issues. They do little to implement this European direction but there is less to worry about because these issues are still far away,’ said Andrzej Szeptycki from the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw.
Then there also the future of the EURO 2012 football championships which Poland is hosting jointly with Ukraine. On several occasions FIFA expressed criticism of progress in preparations to the event in both countries. Oskar Chomicki from "Poland in Europe" Foundation agrees this aspect of bilateral relations may become problematic: ‘For Poland in this situation I think nothing can be worse because with the European Football Championships to be held together we should expect more cooperation from the Ukrainian but then who should we appeal to for that cooperation now? The parliament is in disarray, the government is in disarray, the main political partners cannot cooperate, most of the population probably wish to become more Europeanized and look to Poland for some sort of advice. It is putting us in a very uncomfortable position’.
The decision to dissolve the Ukrainian parliament and hold snap elections was also criticized by Poland's former president Aleksander Kwasniewski, one of the main supporters of the ideals of the Orange Revolution who speaking to Polish news agency PAP called it “a grave mistake”.