For the first time since January, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) in Poland has overtaken Civic Platform (PO), according to GfK Polonia, in an opinion poll taken last weekend. During the last week, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party gained 8 percentage points, whereas PO lost 6.
PiS has 30 per cent support with a 4 percentage point advantage over the Civic Platform.
The Left and Democrats (LiD) coalition came third in the poll with a 12 per cent following.
According to respondents, the coalition between the League of Polish Families and Self Defence (LiS) could also count on some seats in the Parliament with6 per cent support, as well as the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL), which enjoys a 5 per cent following.
At the end of August (25th and 26th), when the ruling coalition disintegrated and after Kaczmarek’s depositions, PiS had the lowest result (22 per cent). PO could then count on 31 per cent.
According to the survey conducted by GFK Polonia, PO’s advantage was big enough to form a majority government single-handedly.
,br>Today, PO would not have the majority even in alliance with LiD, but Kaczyński’s party could, in theory, form a majority cabinet if the coalition with LPR and Self Defense could be resurrected and PSL persuaded to join in.
The drastic increase in support for the PiS government under Jaroslaw Kaczynski is thought to be the result of last Friday’s press conference held by the prosecution, when what they said was hard evidence was revealed against ex-minister Kaczmarek and his alleged accomplices: the former chief of police Konrad Kornatowski, former chairman of the leading Polish insurance company PZU, Jaromir Netzel and businessman Ryszard Krauze.
All four have been implicated in a corruption scandal which has seen Andrzej Lepper dismissed from the government and the probability of a snap election.
If the election result was identical with the daily’s poll, the division of seats in the Sejm would be as follows: PiS - 174, PO - 149, LiD - 75, LiS - 36, PSL - 24, German Minority MPs - 2.
The opinion poll was conducted among 986 respondents on 1 and 2 September.